Let’s assume that FCB is so dominant that it only loses 5% of its home games, regardless of the opponent, and gets at least a draw 95% of the time. Then the probability of Munich losing a game in the league at some point during the entire season is exactly 58.19% (calculation: 1 – 0.95^17). From a mathematical point of view, it is therefore very likely that Bayern will lose a game at the end of the season despite having a clear advantage. No matter who the opponent was, the media will again have their reasons and stories ready to justify this. This is just a brief explanation of how you can calculate at the 22Bet login.
However, the fact is that this was simply a coincidence that mathematically has to happen every now and then. It is precisely this way of thinking that needs to be adopted. In games such as Bayern v Mainz or Wolfsburg v Real, it is not the task of recognizing patterns and then risking a bet on the underdog in a similar constellation. Instead, it is necessary to question whether the event actually had value, or whether Bayern would probably not lose another match against Mainz in 20 comparable games. The ability to distinguish luck from mathematical chance is the hallmark of a good and strategically-minded sports bettor.
The search for the golden formula
The big goal of a mathematician (and sports bettor) must be to create that one golden formula that allows him to make a bet that he knows will be profitable without batting an eyelid, without media previews, sometimes without even knowing any of the teams.
There will be a few cliffs to cross on the way there and you will also have to put up with the odd setback. Once you have found a formula, a model or an algorithm, you have arrived in the promised land in terms of betting. Even if you can only expect a profit of 1% per bet placed and perhaps only find three games each day that contain value, a big profit is possible in the long term.
Let’s assume a bettor starts with €1000 starting capital and only ever bets 1% of the available capital – i.e. exactly €10 on the first bet. Then, according to the example, 365 days×3 games per day=1095 games are available for betting and the stake could be increased regularly. As this growth is exponential, you only need a little patience and discipline at the beginning before the big winnings come on their own.
Of course, this is not as easy as it may seem. First of all, you need to find a system in which there are up to three value bets (bets with profit potential) every day. Wettbasis will provide help and suggestions in this search.
Of course, long-term monitoring of the results is also necessary to avoid overestimating and misinterpreting any stochastic deviations. You get a good feel for this over time. It is therefore absolutely essential to keep a proper record of every single action, every bet and every result. This is work that may not be the most fun, but is absolutely necessary to generate success in betting. Of course, Excel templates can also be created to simplify and partially automate the collection of data.
From now on, the betting model series will deal with a topic that is also an essential component of the betting model: correlation. What is correlation, how is it calculated and what advantages does it provide for upcoming bets? The term value bet should also be understood. Some people certainly know what a value bet is. However, how to recognize when such a bet exists is also explained in the following lines.