Value bets occur when you gain an advantage over the bookmakers or betting markets.
At 22Bet, understanding value betting is key to long-term success. Some tools, such as Trademate, use betting software. They calculate an edge percentage. This shows how much profit you might expect from a wager.
For example, if you place $100 on an 8% edge, your expected net profit would be $8 ($100 * 0.08).
Bookmakers set their odds in specific ways, which leads to two main reasons for an edge. Understanding this is key. Let’s break it down.
How Bookmakers Profit: The Hidden Margin Behind Every Bet
All bookmakers and exchanges have a margin — that’s how they make money.
Their margin may vary from as low as 3% to as high as 20%.
Imagine a pure coin flip where you can bet on heads or tails. The odds should be 2 on each side, which means a 50% probability of hitting one of the sides.
For bookmakers to make money, they set their odds at 1.8 on both sides, skimming 10% off the winning bet.
Top Bookmakers Rely on Market Trends to Set the Best Odds
The best bookmakers are market-driven. Those odds drop if a lot of money is bet on one side. Meanwhile, the odds on the other side go up.
This means the odds are ultimately decided by liquidity in the market. When the amount of money going through is high enough, the odds are as close to perfect as they will be.
By examining the odds of these high-liquidity markets, one can learn from hundreds of thousands of people.
Few bookmakers can do this. They lack a big enough customer base, which makes things uncertain. The ones that can are mostly in Asia.
How Changing Information Shifts Odds and Unlocks Betting Opportunities
Value occurs when new information that impacts a game is acquired.
A very good example was the FA Cup game between Chelsea and Manchester City on February 21st, 2016. A couple of hours before the game, the best odds you could get on Chelsea to win were around 1.75–1.8.
One hour before the game, the lineups were revealed. Manchester City included five teenagers making their full debut.
As seen in the picture, that information triggered a huge change in the market. All the high liquidity markets dropped from 1.8 to 1.35 in less than 10 minutes.
Many European bookmakers didn’t react quickly enough. Some bookmakers spent more than 30 minutes changing their odds.
That means you could now get Chelsea to win at 1.7–1.8 when everyone else agreed they should have no more than 1.35–1.45. This turned out to be a huge edge!
Final Thoughts
Understanding value bets is crucial for long-term success in sports betting. You can find profitable chances before the odds change. Look at how bookmakers set their odds and how markets respond to new information. Having a strategy is key. It helps you in high-liquidity markets. It also aids in analyzing edge percentages and reacting to team news. This advantage can be significant.
At 22Bet, staying ahead of the game means using data-driven insights to make smarter bets. Remember, the key to successful betting isn’t luck—finding value while others don’t. Keep refining your approach. Track market movements. Take advantage of every chance to boost your profits!